Net run rate could play a part with Australia and South Africa best placed
S Rajesh01-Nov-2021England
With only one match to go, four points is the maximum Sri Lanka can achieve. For that to suffice, they will have to hope that South Africa and Australia lose their two remaining matches, which will mean five teams finishing on four points each. A big win against West Indies will then lift their NRR – if they score 160 and win by 50 runs, it will improve to 0.047. If South Africa lose their last two, their NRR – currently 0.210 – can easily slip below Sri Lanka’s. It might then be possible that Sri Lanka’s NRR is the best among the five teams. However, if any one of those results don’t go as Sri Lanka would want it to, they will be out.Related
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South Africa
South Africa have won two and lost one, and one of their remaining games is against the form team of their group. If they beat Bangladesh and lose to England, they will be at the mercy of other results as Australia can finish on eight points if they win their last two. Their NRR of 0.210 is significantly better than Australia’s -0.627 and West Indies’ -1.598, though, and that will help their cause should either or both of those teams finish on six points along with South Africa.Australia
Australia’s poor NRR could hurt them if it comes down to that factor against South Africa. Their best-case scenario is to win both their remaining games, and then hope that South Africa lose at least one. If Australia lose one, they would want South Africa to lose both and stay on four points.West Indies
West Indies’ NRR is the worst among the six teams in Group 1, so they will not want any scenarios where run rates come into play (unless they achieve huge wins in their last two games). Their best-case scenario would be if Australia and South Africa lost their two remaining matches and stayed on four points. Then, West Indies can qualify with six points if they win their two remaining matches.Bangladesh
As mentioned earlier, it is possible for five teams to finish on four points each. Bangladesh’s problem, though, is also their poor NRR, which they will have to lift to have any chance of fighting for the second spot in the group.
