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The gap between the Premier League and the Championship is threatening to become a yawning chasm in seasons to come.
Last season saw Wolves, Cardiff City and Fulham promoted. After a link-up with super-agent Jorge Mendes and a major cash influx, Wolves have consolidated their position in the top-flight and will perhaps have their eye on the Champions League in seasons to come. With the likes of Ruben Neves – long hailed as one of the best midfield prospects on the continent – and Joao Moutinho, plus Raul Jimenez, Wolves have made good use of the money they have been lucky enough to receive. They are currently seventh and could be playing in the Europa League next season.
Fulham and Cardiff have not been so lucky.
The Cottagers seem to cycle through managers as singletons swipe through matches on Tinder, and here we are, with Scott Parker at the helm, the former Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea midfielder tasked with achieving the impossible. Fulham are 19th. They have won just four times all season – their last victory came at the end of January, a 4-2 success over Brighton & Hove Albion – and have amassed 17 points; they are 10 points off safety.
Cardiff, too, have endured a miserable season for all manner of reasons. They have played some truly terrible football and have not won any of their last three games – losing by an aggregate score of 10-1. But they are still fighting bravely against the drop. Many neutrals hope they manage to survive, in part due to the tragic loss of Emiliano Sala. They are two points off Southampton and it is a testament to their character that they are still in with a shout.
But the point, more than their performances this season, is that this was expected. Wolves, we knew, were coming in to tear up the established order, newly-monied and with their eyes on the prize, they were gunning for the top 10.
But Fulham and Cardiff? Every fan across the land expected the Bluebirds to be battling against the drop; the Cottagers, meanwhile, were a more unpredictable entity after their summer spending spree but still likely to struggle after sneaking into the top-flight via the playoffs.
And this is the fate that may await both Leeds United and Norwich City if they gain promotion to the Premier League.
Both sides are enjoying exciting seasons in the Championship. Norwich are top, two points clear of the Whites in second. They both play with very clear philosophies – the Canaries under the forward-thinking, youth-promoting Daniel Farke and Leeds under the enigmatic Marcelo Bielsa.
Norwich play quick, aggressive, attacking football and were described by AFC Bournemouth manager Eddie Howe in January as “one of the form teams in the country”.
Bielsa, at Leeds, too, has invested in youth, placing his trust in the likes of Jack Clarke and Jack Harrison and reaping the rewards. He has an attention to detail unmatched by any other manager in the Football League – just ask Frank Lampard and Derby County – and he urges his side to play methodically, keeping the ball and building until an opportunity becomes available.
This is all well and good, but how will it work in the pressure cooker of the Premier League? Both sides, while brilliant to watch in full flow, have defensive deficiencies that will whet the appetites of the likes of Harry Kane, Sergio Aguero and Mohamed Salah and their attacking plans rarely need to be altered.
Their wanton desire to get forward and get on the ball will be severely tested if they are promoted.
Norwich, it has to be said, have been here before and were promoted in 2015. They spent just one season in the top-flight and were relegated in 19th, five points off safety.
Leeds have no such experience. They have history, of course they do, and they are a truly massive club, but they have not played Premier League football in over a decade. They were relegated in 2003-04 and have not been back since.
Times have changed and the Premier League has moved on. The top-flight is drowning in money and teams who are not up for the fight get chewed up and spat back out again.
Huddersfield Town stayed up, miraculously, last season after winning promotion under David Wagner. This season, their playing style was worked out and thus their gameplan destroyed. They are rock-bottom and have just 14 points, meaning they are on course to become one of the worst sides in Premier League history.
It is a prescient warning. Both Leeds and Norwich have the potential to become fixtures in the top-flight. They both have the infrastructure, the manager, the trust in youth and, if they come up, their resources will increase significantly.
But their faith will be tested. A couple of bad results may have to be weathered. Farke and Bielsa have very clear ideas of how they want to play football and it may well see them storm the Premier League in the same vein as Wolves. Both teams, it bears repeating, are breathtaking in full flight.
But it may not work out. The ideas may not transmit against the likes of Jurgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola, Mauricio Pochettino and Unai Emery. It may be a season of adjusting expectations continually. The board will have to stick by the boss.
Promotion, after all, would be a leap into the unknown for both men, but there are more than enough cautionary tales for them to take heed from.
Those who do not learn from history, after all, are doomed to repeat it.
