Wednesday’s NBA playoff action features the final three Game 2s before every series shifts to the lower-seeded team’s home arena later in the week.
The Cleveland Cavaliers – the No. 1 seed in the East – are aiming to build on a 21-point Game 1 win when they take on the Miami Heat in Game 2, although Miami won’t be at a rest disadvantage in this game. The Heat ran out of gas in Game 1 after winning in the play-in tournament just two days prior.
The other top seed in the East – the Boston Celtics – is in action as well on Wednesday. The C’s picked up a 17-point win in Game 1 as they aim to continue their title defense, and there is an interesting bet to consider for their matchup with the Orlando Magic tonight.
In the Western Conference, the Golden State Warriors are looking to pick up a second straight road win over the No. 2-seeded Houston Rockets, but oddsmakers have Houston set as a 2.5-point favorite in that matchup.
I have player props for the Warriors and Cavs games, while there is a team total to consider in the C’s-Magic matchup. Let’s break down all three picks for the action on April 23.
NBA Best Bets Record to Date2024-25 season record: 229-220-4 (-2.77 units)OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1239-1165-26 (+35.33 units)
NBA Best Bets Today
Orlando Magic Team Total UNDER 92.5 (-110) – 0.5 unitDavion Mitchell OVER 16.5 Points and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unitJimmy Butler OVER 22.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unitOrlando Magic Team Total UNDER 92.5 (-110) – 0.5 unit
The big concern for Orlando in this series was always the team’s offense, and that was evident in Game 1, as Orlando scored just 86 points despite Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner combining for 59.
The Magic finished the regular season 27th in offensive rating and dead last in effective field goal percentage, but Sunday’s matchup was a sign that outside of Banchero they don’t have much in terms of efficient scoring options.
The same issue cost Orlando in the playoffs last season, and this Celtics defense – top 10 in the NBA – isn’t going to be easy to beat. Plus, these teams played at the slowest pace (87) of any teams in the playoffs in Game 1.
If this Game 2 matchup turns into another half-court slog, Orlando simply doesn’t score efficiently enough – or hit enough 3s – for me to trust it to clear this total.
Davion Mitchell OVER 16.5 Points and Assists (-105) – 0.5 unit
Heat guard Davion Mitchell has been a revelation as of late, scoring 15, 16 and 18 points in his three postseason games (two play-in games) with Miami. On top of that, he’s adding nearly eight assists per game (23 total) during that stretch.
After a big Game 1 where he played nearly 34 minutes, I expect Mitchell to remain in a featured role for the Heat because of his defensive ability. The former first-round pick is one of the better options defensively on Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland in this series.
Over his final 14 regular season games, Mitchell averaged 12.1 points and 6.3 assists per game. He seems to have carried that momentum into the playoffs, and I love him at this number on Wednesday.
Jimmy Butler OVER 22.5 Points (-105) – 0.5 unit
Playoff Jimmy is here.
Jimmy Butler scored 25 points in Game 1 against Houston, taking 19 shots and six free throws to help lead Golden State to a road win.
Since the end of the regular season, Butler has really flipped the switch as a scorer, putting up 24 or more points in each of his last five games. He also played over 40 minutes in the Game 1 win for the Warriors.
If Butler’s usage remains this high, he’s a must bet as a scorer for a Golden State team that doesn’t have many options on offense after him and Steph Curry.
Houston has done a good job limiting the Warriors’ scoring this season, but if Butler is going to put up around 20 shot attempts, he’s going to be in the mix to score 23 or more points every night.
