For the past few weeks, I have checked the opening total lines for games involving the Panthers thinking it might go under 30 points.
I’m going to have to keep waiting, because Panthers-Packers received a generous total line of 36.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook. The Panthers won last week, but they beat the Falcons, 9–7.
The Jets also have one of the worst offenses in the NFL, but the total line for Jets-Commanders is 37.5 points, partly because of Washington’s poor defense.
Maybe I’ll see a total line under 30 points before the end of the regular season, but until then, I’m going to avoid bets involving the Panthers and Jets. I don’t know what to expect from their games this weekend. But I do have confidence in other games for this week, specifically Lions-Vikings.
Here are the five best over/under bets for Week 16 (all total numbers are from SI Sportsbook).
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1. Bills (8–6) at Chargers (5–9)Over/Under: 43.5Prediction: Over
No way you can consider taking the under after the Chargers allowed 63 points to the Raiders. Perhaps the Chargers will show more fight for interim head coach Giff Smith, but it’s tough seeing this poor defense containing Josh Allen and the Bills. Yes, Buffalo easily could just lean on the rushing attack, the same way it did against Dallas last week. But the Bills still scored 31 points and the Cowboys have a better defense than the Chargers. But the Easton Stick-led Chargers will probably need to do their part for this over bet to hit, especially if the Bills hit cruise control after halftime. Perhaps Stick can generate a few garbage-time touchdowns, which he did in Las Vegas before falling 63–21.
2. Lions (10–4) at Vikings (7–7)
As long as the Lions don’t play outdoors, they tend to light up the scoreboard. They brushed off their 13-point performance in Chicago in Week 14 with 42 points at home against the Broncos last week. The Lions could have a tough challenge against Brian Flores’s defense, but the unit collapsed last week in the fourth quarter and overtime against Jake Browning and the Bengals. If Flores decides to go blitz-heavy, Jared Goff has the option of throwing dump-offs and screens to running back Jahmyr Gibbs. If Flores drops eight defenders in coverage, Goff has rookie tight end Sam LaPorta and wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown for intermediate throws. The Vikings have a unique defensive scheme, but the Lions match up well against their NFC North rivals. As for the Vikings’ offense, backup Nick Mullens provided a boost in Cincinnati, despite throwing a few interceptions.
3. Jaguars (8–6) at Buccaneers (7–7)Over/Under: 42.5Prediction: Over
Last week, I predicted the Buccaneers would continue their offensive surge, but I didn’t expect 381 yards from Baker Mayfield and 34 total points for Tampa Bay during the win in Green Bay. I keep waiting for the rollercoaster to drop on Mayfield because of his past struggles with consistency. But the connections he has established with his playmakers and offensive coordinator Dave Canales during his first season with the Buccaneers might be legit. Tampa Bay has scored at least 20 points in the past four games, with the total increasing in each game. Perhaps the Buccaneers keep the trend going against a suspect Jaguars’ defense that’s allowing 22.4 points per game. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars’ offense, however, need to stop turning the ball over. They were held to seven points in the loss to the Ravens last week.
4. Giants (5–9) at Eagles (10–4)Over/Under: 42.5Prediction: Under
The panic alarms are ringing in Philadelphia after a three-game losing streak, including a 20–17 loss to the Seahawks on Monday night. The Eagles are hurting on both sides of the ball, physically and mentally after a grueling five-game stretch against the Bills, 49ers, Seahawks and two games against the Cowboys. Expect the Eagles to get right against the struggling Giants, but don’t count on an offensive explosion, especially with Jalen Hurts dealing with injuries. The Giants’ defense has been respectable in most games this season (when they’re not playing the Cowboys). New York did win three consecutive games with backup Tommy DeVito before losing to the Saints last week. But the Giants have been held to single digits in five games this season.
5. Ravens (11–3) at 49ers (11–3)Over/Under: 46.5Prediction: Over
The mighty 49ers are averaging 34.5 points per game during their six-game winning streak, including 45 points dropped on the Cardinals last week. San Francisco, however, hasn’t faced a defense as good as Baltimore’s during its winning streak. But the Ravens allowed 31 points not too long ago to the Rams, who utilized a run-heavy scheme behind Kyren Williams. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the 49ers use the Rams’ blueprint to generate touchdowns against the Ravens’ stout defense. They do have MVP candidate Christian McCaffrey, after all. Also, don’t underestimate the Ravens’ offense with Lamar Jackson, another MVP candidate. Jackson’s passing attack has been on point in the past two games against the Rams and Jaguars. Jackson has formed connections with Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr. and Isaiah Likely. They could test the 49ers’ thin secondary.
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