Week Five if the NFL season is here, and it’s time to get in on the action! There's a London game early on Sunday, and I like a few Jets props in that matchup.
I’ve thrown in more plus-money picks than usual. Consider playing a few of them for the value. If you’re looking for Sunday or Monday night props, those featured articles will be out tomorrow.
Now, let’s have some fun.
Best NFL Player PropsAaron Rodgers over 1.5 passing TDs (+140) at DraftKingsGarrett Wilson over 52.5 receiving yards (-110) at FanDuelMike Williams over 30.5 receiving yards (-119) at Caesars James Cook under 59.5 rushing yards (-115) at DraftKingsCJ Stroud over 10.5 rushing yards (-115) at DraftKings Amari Cooper over 49.5 receiving yards (-130) at DraftKingsJayden Daniels anytime TD (+130) at DraftKings Jerry Jeudy anytime TD (+275) at BetMGMAaron Rodgers over 1.5 passing TDs (+140)
This is a value play to start the day.
No team has allowed more completions (109) or more passing yards (1188) to opposing quarterbacks than the Vikings. Jordan Love had four passing touchdowns vs. this defense last week, and Rodgers will be looking to put on a show on the international stage after tossing no touchdown passes last week. Rodgers has two games with two passing touchdowns this year.
Garrett Wilson over 52.5 receiving yards (-110)
Wide receivers have averaged a league-high 220 receiving yards per game vs. the Vikings. Outside receivers have averaged 10 catches and 140 yards per game.
Despite underwhelming results so far, Wilson leads the team with a 25% target share and a 34% air yards share. He also has the highest first-read rate for Rodgers (31.2%).
Mike Williams over 30.5 receiving yards (-119)
Williams runs 85% of his routes outside, where the Vikings have allowed an average of ten catches and 140 receiving yards per game. Williams is averaging just 30 yards per game, but he has exceeded this prop in each of the last two. Williams is the type of receiver that could exceed this prop in a single catch.
James Cook under 59.5 rushing yards (-115)
Cook has been an important part of the offense for Buffalo, but his matchup isn’t great this week vs. Houston. The Texans have only allowed two running backs to exceed this mark (Aaron Jones and Tank Bigsby). Both of those running backs broke off big runs. Houston has allowed just 83 rushing yards per game and 4.19 yards per carry this year to opposing running backs, and I’ll bet that Ray Davis and Josh Allen will take some of the groundwork from Cook on Sunday.
CJ Stroud over 10.5 rushing yards (-115)
Three of four starting quarterbacks have exceeded this prop vs. the Bills, with the only exception being Trevor Lawrence. Stroud has exceeded this prop in three of four games, and the only concern I have for him not exceeding it this week would be kneel-downs at the end.
Amari Cooper over 49.5 receiving yards (-130)
Cooper has just 148 receiving yards this season, and that’s why we are getting such a low number here. Cooper leads the Browns with a 25% target share and a massive 46.8% air yards share. That should play well vs. a Commanders defense that has allowed 175 yards per game to opposing wideouts with ten total touchdowns this season.
Jayden Daniels anytime TD (+130)
Daniels has four rushing TDs this season, scoring with his legs in three of four contests. This week the Commanders could be playing without Brian Robinson, Jr. It doesn’t matter that the Browns haven’t allowed a rushing TD to an opposing QB this season. We’re betting on the value and the talent.
Jerry Jeudy anytime TD (+275)
This is another value play.
I like the payout here for Cleveland Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy versus a Commanders’ defense that has allowed a league-high 10 touchdowns to opposing receivers.
Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy are tied with a team-leading 33.3% of the team’s red zone targets, but Jeudy’s TD has a nicer payout. Jeudy leads the Browns in receiving yards (190) and yards per reception (10.9) and he has one touchdown so far this season.
